Recent decades have seen Thailand evolve into a regional migration hub in South-East Asia. Thailand has enjoyed healthy economic growth supported by its export-oriented businesses. As a result, Thailand has been experiencing an excess demand for low-skilled workers. Over the years, this gap has gradually been filled by low-skilled migrant workers from neighboring countries, enabling the labor-intensive sectors to maintain Thailand’s economic growth. At present, Thailand plays host to around 3.5 million migrants, roughly 3 million of whom are working. The vast majority of migrant workers in the country consist of low-skilled workers from three neighboring countries: Myanmar, Cambodia and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, with Myanmar nationals being the largest migrant worker population, numbering estimated 2.3 million. It is projected that Thailand, in the foreseeable future, will depend on migrant labor force to fill the widening gap between the increasing labor demand and decreasing labor supply, which can possibly increase to 5.36 million workers by 2025.
On the other hand, unprecedented political and economic changes in Myanmar in the past years hints at the possibility of a drastic change in the mobility patterns of the Myanmar labor force in the coming decades. With the economic projection that Myanmar’s GDP could triple by 2030, creating more than 10 million new non-agricultural jobs, Myanmar workers will have employment options within their own country. If Myanmar’s economic development continues at the pace currently projected, Myanmar nationals’ migration patterns will inevitably and significantly change.
Taking into consideration the expected increases in the labor demand in both Thailand and Myanmar in the coming years, it is predicted that the job sectors to receive the greatest impact from their inability to fill their labor needs are those which currently pay migrants lower wages. Previously, Thai workers in these sectors were replaced by new immigrants. In the future, with an increase in the demand for labor in both countries, these sectors would encounter difficulties in finding workers at the level of income they presently offer. At this point in time, it is difficult to think of any other practical options for these employment sectors than raising the levels of income for migrants so that they can retain a sufficient migrant labor force necessary for operating their businesses. Accordingly, it is crucial to pertain an evidence-based understanding of the evolving migration patterns of Myanmar migrants and the ways the changes will affect them, their employers and other stakeholders, the characteristics of Myanmar migrants in the country, as well as of the whole cycle of migration and the conditions of migrant workers before their decision to migrate, during the migration and, in the case of return, after migration and finally, the two countries involved. How soon these sectors will be forced to raise wages really depends on the increase in the demand for labor in other parts of Thailand and Myanmar, and how the market wage levels for migrants in Thailand will increase. These are all important factors to consider by individual business owners, industry associations and the Royal Thai Government in facing and managing the changes that are sure to come.
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